Prop 8 Isn't Doing So Well

I'm usually quite the skeptic when it comes to the government and politics.  At least, that's been the case for roughly the last eight years.  Go figure.

Yet, I'm breaking radio silence here to say something optimistic: Proposition 8 isn't going to pass.  I'm sorry to ruffle the feathers of all you superstitious folks out there, but what has been a growing feeling for me has now crystallized into a firm belief.  I'm putting it out there.  Why? Take a look at this:

First, our Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (who, you will note, supports marriage only between a man and a woman) opposes Prop. 8 and has labeled it as "a waste of time."

Second, when it comes to money, we're winning:

Supporters of the effort to ban same-sex marriage already have taken in more than $1.2 million from out-of-state contributors for the fall campaign. And even before Bastian, a co-founder of the WordPerfect software company, opened his checkbook, gay and lesbian rights groups and their supporters from around the country had put more than $1.3 million into the fight against the ballot initiative.

Now add to that the $1,000,000 check that Word Perfect founder Bruce Bastian just contributed, and we're up to $2.3 million from out-of-state contributors alone.

Third, California's Secretary of State changed the title of the proposition to  "a constitutional change to eliminate the right of same sex couples to marry."  Historically, voters are much more reluctant to take away rights that have already been given than to prevent new rights from being given.  Of course, the backers of the proposition are suing to get the name changed back, but who cares.  This will just make bigger news and remind people that they are taking something away.  Damage done.

Fourth, the largest public utility company in Northern California, PG&E, just announced that it opposes Prop. 8, is giving $250,000 to the anti proposition campaign, and get this:

will spearhead the formation of a business advisory council that will seek to get other businesses around California to to defeat the ballot initiative that would amend the state constitution to define marriage as only between a man and a woman.

I've never heard of such a thing from a public utility.  It's great.

Lastly, the Republicans... well, the Republicans largely just suck at everything they are doing this year.  California proposition initiatives have proven no exception to that rule.  The LA Times credits the Republican's ability to get 11 anti-marriage initiatives on the ballot last year toward launching the party to its many victories.  This year, somebody must have screwed up:

Republicans have been tripped up by mishaps and errors that have kept measures off the ballot.
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Partly for that reason, even hot-button measures to ban gay marriage -- on the ballot in California, Arizona and Florida -- might not do much for the conservative cause in November. California is considered a sure-win for Obama, regardless of any state measure on the ballot . . . .

So, there it is folks.  I'm taking my stand.  Sure, we need to keep working hard, but Prop 8. isn't passing this time around.  It's just not gonna happen.